The Dunning–Kruger Curve and Junior Squash: Why Confidence Spikes, Dips and Eventually Settles Into the Real Thing

The Dunning–Kruger effect describes a simple pattern in human learning. When someone first starts developing a skill, they often become confident faster than they become competent. They know a little, it feels like a lot, and the brain gets ahead of itself. As they improve and see more of the game’s complexity, that overconfidence drops. Eventually, with experience, feedback and practice, their confidence lines up with their level.

Squash shows this pattern clearly.

A new or rapidly improving junior has a few strong training weeks and suddenly everything feels easy. They think they “get it.” They feel ready for big jumps in competition. This isn’t arrogance. It’s normal early-stage learning. The sport feels smaller than it really is.

Then comes the dip.

A tough tournament. A bad matchup. A player who exposes the layers they have not explored yet. The game suddenly looks bigger again. Players sometimes panic at this stage, wondering if they are going backwards when in fact they are simply seeing more truth.

This is where good coaching matters most.

A coach helps the athlete understand that this curve is a feature, not a flaw. They normalise the dip. They guide the athlete through deeper layers of the game: decision-making, tactical control, momentum management, shot selection under pressure, movement efficiency and emotional regulation. As those skills mature, players develop a steadier form of confidence. Not the early stage “I know everything,” and not the dip’s “I know nothing,” but the grounded “I know what I’m doing and what I’m working on.”

In a sport as fast and complex as squash, that mature confidence is gold. It allows players to adjust mid-match, handle stress without collapsing, and understand that development is not linear. It grows in loops, dips and returns.

The Dunning–Kruger effect is not something to fear. It’s a map.

It shows players exactly where they are on the learning journey and reminds them that temporary confusion often signals progress. With coaching, consistency and a bit of humility, juniors move toward the part of the curve where confidence and competence finally match.

That’s where the real breakthroughs tend to happen.